GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 14 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU135 UGEOA 30512 40514 1230/ 9930/ 12142 21142 37142 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 212 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 010 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with an X1.7 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86). NOAA AR 3664 and NOAA AR 3674 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 3) produced all of the M-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 is expected to continue its flaring activity at an M-class level with a chance of an isolated X-class flare. NOAA AR 3674 is expected to reduce its activity to the C-class level. Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO images starting from yesterday 09:44 UTC. It is estimated to be Earth-directed and is expected to arrive at Earth later today. Solar wind: During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed continue its drop and the magnetic conditions continue to be undisturbed. The SW speed dropped from 760 to 500 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 9 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between directed away and towards the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at Earth late today and cause significant disruption. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2- and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active or minor storm levels as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased above the 10 pfu threshold level since yesterday 14:20 UTC. It is expected to stay above this alert level for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased to levels around the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to remain close to the alert level for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased during the past 24 hours but remain at low levels. It is expected remain at the same level in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 193, BASED ON 13 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40514 1230/ 13/// 10252 2215/ 3025/ 4//// 81016 91300 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 13 1256 1311 1323 ////// M3.7 86/3664 13 1732 1747 1823 S10E43 M1.0 SF 03/3674 13 2148 2159 2207 ////// M1.5 86/3664 III/2 14 0203 0209 0219 ////// X1.7 86/3664 III/2II/2 END UGEOR 30512 40514 1230/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 81202 12022 17432 38210 36018 57647 51004 33014 31405 45008 41927 3/802 48005 10324 11408 46003 10419 11304 52009 22222 34410 47008 13018 21404 49004 25410 1/801 50010 26514 21303 USSPS 32404 12052 14522 56101 36521 57619 62007 42127 2/801 63001 10219 21304 64004 12819 21306 65003 10124 24309 66001 25209 2/801 67009 26413 21303 68003 33215 21404 69005 22021 37408 USSPS 21305 12154 20432 80325 37017 57419 87013 42727 5/804 88001 40520 1/802 89007 40423 21314 90010 12518 21306 92001 24610 2/801 93013 25814 51305 94011 33813 24417 95010 21622 24413 96001 27809 0/101 97001 17008 0/101 98000 33302 0/101 UMAGF 30503 40514 1004/ 13068 1/019 23333 32212 UMAGF 31523 40514 0000/ 13004 1/025 25533 34432 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.