SIDC ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 13 1258 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40513
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2024, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 218 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 006

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during
the last 24 hours with almost all registered activity emitted from NOAA
Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania
sunspot group 86). The most notable activity was an X1.0 flare detected
yesterday at 16:26 UTC, an M6 flare today at 09:44 UTC and an M4 yesterday
at 20:32 UTC. NOAA AR 3676 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) and 3679
(magnetic configuration Alpha) became active during the past 24 hours,
producing an M1 flare each. Further M-class flaring activity is expected
from NOAA AR 3664 and probably from NOAA AR 3676 and 3679. X-class flaring
activity form NOAA AR 3664 is also possible in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were
observed in the last 24 hours.
Two CME observed yesterday at 02:00 UTC and 03:48 UTC are not likely to be
Earth-directed.

Solar wind: During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed remained
high, however, the magnetic conditions have returned to undisturbed levels.
The SW speed dropped from 980 to 620 km/s, while the total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 to 11 nT. The North-South magnetic
component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT, while the interplanetary
magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun. In
the next 24 hours the SW speed is expected to drop gradually and the
geomagnetic conditions to remain mild. One or two glancing blows from
passing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are expected in the next 24 hours, but
they will most likely have a very minor effect.

Geomagnetism: The global geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm
levels (NOAA Kp 6- to 6+) during the period from 12 May 21:00 UTC to 13 May
06:00 UTC but they have since dropped to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3-). The
local geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K BEL 5) yesterday
at 21:00-24:00 UTC but they also now dropped to unsettled (K BEL 3) levels.
In the next 24 hours, they are likely to remain at the same levels and
possibly increase to active levels (K=4) for short periods of time, both
globally and locally.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the
GOES-18 satellite, continue its drop and was below the 10 pfu threshold
level during the last 24 hours. It is likely that it will continue its
gradual drop in the next 24 hours, however, there is a chance of a new
proton event and an increase in flux above the alert level.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-18 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert level during the
last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the
next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past
24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24
hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 227, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 222
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 044
AK WINGST              : 046
ESTIMATED AP           : 056
ESTIMATED ISN          : 186, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
12  1227  1241 1254 S09E78 M1.6 SF       86/3664      VI/1 
12  1340  1347 1349 S09E78 M1.0 SF       ///3679      
12  1349  1356 1408 S21W70 M1.5 SF       86/3664      
12  1611  1626 1638 S18W72 X1.0 1F       86/3664      
12  2017  2032 2049 S18W74 M4.8 SN       86/3664      III/2VI/1 
12  2201  2206 2212 S16W80 M1.1 SF       86/3664      VI/1 
12  2214  2218 2224 S21E11 M1.1 SF       ///3676      
12  2300  2310 2314 S18W77 M1.0 SF       86/3664      III/1VI/1 
13  0123  0133 0138 S20W72 M1.2 SF       86/3664      
13  0806  0820 0823 S19W80 M1.2 SF       86/3664      
13  0823  0829 0833 S19W80 M1.4 SF       ///////      
13  0847  0933 0936 S21E06 M4.9 SF       86/3664      CTM/1II/2 
13  0848  0944 1057 S20W81 M6.6 SF       86/3664      CTM/1II/2IV/2III/2 
END

UMAGF 30503 40513 1004/ 12062 1/044 23322 34545
UMAGF 31523 40513 0000/ 12003 1/046 26644 33356
BT
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